Forex Markets Analysis 3 June 2024


Key Events and Predictions

ECB Rate Decision:

US Jobs Data:

  • US jobs week concludes with Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, following JOLTS, ADP, and initial jobless claims earlier in the week.
  • Market outlook on US rate cuts delayed due to persistent high inflation.
  • Any signs of a weakening US job market may lead to a re-pricing of US interest rate cut expectations.

Other Key Data:

  • Bank of Canada’s policy decision.
  • Australian GDP release.
  • US ISM Services data.

Market Movements and Technical Analysis

US Dollar (USD):

  • The US dollar is under pressure, nearing a two-month low.
  • The USD index is testing the 200-day simple moving average.
  • A confirmed break lower could see the USD trade below 104.00.


  • Gold prices are vulnerable to a downward move.
  • Rising US Treasury yields are influencing gold prices.
  • Target level: $2,280/oz.
  • Friday’s NFP report will be critical for gold’s future performance.

Nasdaq 100:

  • The Nasdaq 100 index turned lower, affected by the performance of its key components, the Magnificent Seven.
  • Friday’s price action will be crucial for potential recovery.
  • The index remains vulnerable due to its concentration in a few mega-cap companies.


Key Market Indices

  • Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): Near flat over the past five trading sessions.
  • S&P 500 (GSPC): Rose less than 0.2%.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Down nearly 1%.

Market Overview

May Performance:

  • Stocks stumbled at the end of May.
  • Investor enthusiasm for AI paused.
  • Concerns over the Federal Reserve holding interest rates higher for longer.

Upcoming Economic Data

  • Labor Market Updates:
    • May Jobs Report: Set for release on Friday.
    • Additional Data: Job openings and private wage growth updates.
    • Sector Activity: Readings on services and manufacturing sectors expected.

Corporate Earnings

  • Quarterly Results:
    • CrowdStrike (CRWD)
    • Lululemon (LULU)
    • Dollar Tree (DLTR)

Inflation Insights

  • PCE Index Update:
    • April reading showed a 0.2% increase from the prior month.
    • Lowest monthly increase in 2024.
    • Economists noted it as better news on inflation compared to Q1.
    • Investors’ interest rate cut expectations remained unchanged.

Federal Reserve Outlook:

  • Officials require “greater confidence” in inflation’s decline before cutting rates.

Labor Market Lookahead

  • May Jobs Report Expectations:
    • Forecast: 185,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added.
    • Unemployment Rate: Expected to hold steady at 3.9%.
    • April Data: 175,000 jobs added, unemployment at 3.9%.


  • Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment will be tested with the upcoming labor market data.
  • Fed’s Path: Key focus on how the labor market data influences the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.


  • Bitcoin was little changed at $70,000
  • Ether increased 1.71% to $3,764

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